More Flaws in the Vaccine Model Claiming 20 Million Lives Saved

The following article from Brownstone Institute

A study titled “Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study” has appeared in the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal, on 23 June 2022. It has concluded that nearly 14-20 million lives have been saved by the rollout of the Covid-19 jabs. This study immediately gained widespread news coverage worldwide: e.g. The Hindu (India), Mint (India), The Guardian (UK), CBS Detroit (USA), etc. It is thus worth looking at the technical validity of the study.

Flawed assumptions in the jab impact modeling study: The modeling study necessarily incorporates various important parameters. A close look reveals that much of the critical parameters are based on assumptions which are known in the literature to be wrong. The table below summarizes this.

AspectAssumption in modeling studyCritique, Reality check of the assumption
Immunity after natural infection“loss of infection-derived immunity.. follows an Erlang distribution with a mean duration of one year” (see study supplement).Immunity after natural infection is robust and long-lasting; protection against infection lasts much longer than for the jabbed; protection from severe disease is likely lifelong.
Immune evasion to new variants after exposure to earlier variantsImmune evasion for infection-derived immunity occurs for 27% of the previously infected population.”The study cited for this 27% number is interpreted incorrectly. In the cohort study, 27% of the participants showed a decline in antibodies followed by an increase. Rather than meaning that these individuals became susceptible again, it means that these individuals were re-exposed and their immune system worked exactly as it was supposed to.
Vaccine efficacy against infection with Delta variant
Adenovirus: 67%, mRNA: 88%(see Table 1 of supplement)
Efficacy wanes in 6 months:Adenovirus: 44%, mRNA: 63%Such waning efficacy is not modeled.
Vaccine efficacy against mortalityAdenovirus: 92%, mRNA: 93%(see Table 1 of supplement)Efficacy against mortality must be calculated considering all-cause mortality; a preprint study shows a more modest 73% for the adenovirus jabs, and a negative efficacy of –3% for the mRNA jabs; so the modeled numbers are way too optimistic and incorrect; protection against hospitalization and mortality is also known to be waning and this is not modeled.
Vaccine efficacy against transmission“We assume that all vaccinatedindividuals have a 50% reduction in infectiousness for breakthrough infections.”The study cited for this 50% reduction clearly says that efficacy against transmission nears zero after 12 weeks of the jab; other studies have also shown that efficacy against onward transmission is near nil; hence the modeled number is wrong.

All of the above erroneous assumptions are in the direction of amplifying the possible impact of the jabs, while at the same time diminishing the role of immunity after natural infection. Hence it is likely that the modeling study overestimates the lives saved by the Covid-19 jab rollout. Aside from the above parameters, there is yet another technical flaw, as explained below.

The colossal failure of Covid-19 transmission model used: In general, among scientific studies, mathematical modeling carries far lower weight than real-world studies, since modeling necessarily has to make simplifying assumptions. 

In particular, Covid-19 modeling has failed spectacularly. More specifically, the transmission model for Covid-19 proposed in late March 2020, from Imperial College (UK) has been off by a factor of 10-40, as depicted in the table below (data source: websitespreadsheet).

CountryPredictionReal world dataFactor of miscalculation by model
Sweden80,000 deaths with no mitigation~6,000 deaths in first wave with no lockdown13 times
India4.0 million deaths with “social distancing whole population”5.9 million deaths with no mitigation150,000 deaths in 2020 with 3 months of strict lockdown, 6 months of different levels of relaxation26-39 times

It is important to note that the current jab impact modeling study has used the same above Covid-19 transmission modeling, which is known to have failed by a huge factor. Since the earlier transmission model hugely overestimated Covid-19 spread and deaths, it stands to reason that the current jab impact model using the transmission model has grossly overestimated the number of lives saved by the jab rollout.

Financial conflicts of interest: Independent of the above technical flaws, there is another important aspect here. The Lancet publication clearly mentions that the funding sources for this work include the WHO, Gavi, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, all of whom have a financial conflict of interest in mass jabs. However, most of the news outlets have left out this critical information. This is inappropriate and unacceptable in honest journalism.

Summary: In conclusion, it is possible that the jabs may have saved some lives, but the modeling study is likely grossly overestimating the same. Further, that (a) scientists have to resort to a modeling study with so many flaws, and that (b) news outlets have to resort to imbalanced coverage of the same without mention of financial conflicts of interest, does not speak too well of the possibility of a huge impact on lives saved. The scientific evidence to substantiate a jab as life-saving should always be a rigorous randomized control trial.

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  1. The lies don’t stop.All they want to do is make people take this poison. However many people are starting to see the lies and hopefully more people will see this

  2. Hi, all you have to do is read Robert F Kennedy Jr.’s book, The Real Anthony Fauci.
    It tells all!

  3. Thinking Mind:
    Freedom of Expression:
    Human Individual Basic Rights:
    Human Rights:
    Human have the right to life:
    FACTS TRUTH AND CHECKED!!!!
    Depopulation: All Started in false assumptions of wearing facemask
    and false assumptions of face-to-fomite transmission and false assumptions that our SALIVA are automatically a COVID virus.
    Facemasking for a Covid is only a Political will from false assumptions not base on scientific.
    Monkeypox or monkey business pox plus Brainwash Covid all came from Laboratories of enhancing bioweapons.
    Planned Demik is a call of Deaths, aborigines Laboratories and Bioweapons.Only done by a TERRORISTS.
    (Because you love false assumption facemasks and you love BrainwashCovid now may be you love new monkeypox they made you now A New pills name PAXLOVID ).
    pcr test is a 90% above
    false positives generator in conclusion using 37cycles of magnification the higher the number of cycles the highest error
    of positives up to 100%.It cannot identify or isolate the virus.It doesn’t tell you you are sick.
    As Dr.Reiner Fullmich said there is no Pandemic only pcr test Plandemic.
    As late Sen.Meriam Santiago Defensor said:
    ” What is Rule of Law??Ruler??
    “Rule of Law must apply to everyone not base on assumptions and experimental.”

    Assumptions and Experimental if applied to LIFE it mean Horrible Deaths.

    “There is an expectation in bioethics that when an experiment is leading to harm you stop the experiment.” “Uninformed Consent” co-star Dr. Charles Hoffe, MD. Canadians did great on this film! # getvaccinated? # vaccineswork? # VaccinesSaveLives?

    Join 👉 @PeterMcCullough

    Thinking Mind:

    Well of course any experiment and any assumptions if it going to harm
    you and any body, “STOP IT IMMEDIATELY”. It will always kill if not STOP.

    In any single of a lawsuit you ask for a tight evidence, how should you serve true JUSTICE if your Law or Executive Order base on assumptions and experimental???
    Assumptions and Experimental if applied to LIFE IT MEANS HORRIBLE DEATHS.
    Name of Doctors trying to bring you the truth at GREAT cost to themselves and their Life.
    from Philippine:
    Dr. Jose Micabalo Oclarit(virologist)
    Dr. Romeo F. Quijano (Pharmacology and toxicology)
    Doctors of (DX CX concern doctors of the Philippine)

    International Doctors:
    Dr.Peter McCullough (Most Published on CV)
    Dr. Robert Malone (mRNa inventor)
    Dr. Michael Yeadon (Toxicology former Pfizer VP)
    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko (Nobel PP Nominee and Presidents Doctor)
    Dr.Kary Mullis(pcr test inventor and Nobel PP Winner)
    Dr. Sucharit bhakdi (virologist)
    Dr. Robert Morse N.D.
    Dr.Paul Marik #2 Intensive Cars Unit in the World(says that Remdicivir is 53% fatal and toxic, against ivermectin is very effective for early treatment and only cost $2cents )
    He Pronounced Crime Against Humanity because W.H.O and the Governments around the WORLD
    did not allowed the truthful Doctors to treat the PEOPLE.
    Dr. and Prof. Luc Montagnier (Nobel
    Prize winning Virologist)
    Dr. Rima Laibow
    Dr. Naomi Wolf
    Dr.David Martin
    Dr.Roger Hodkinson
    Dr. Geert Vanden Boosche
    Dr. Jane Ruby
    Dr. Vernon Coleman
    Dr. Peter Doshi
    Dr.Michael Lake
    Dr. Reiner Fuelmich
    Dr. Loraine Day
    Dr. Roberto Young
    Plus more 17,000 Doctors Globally.

    Dr. Peter McCullough explained about myocarditis one the side effect of toxic mRNa spike protein causes myocarditis drastically.
    And talk about malfeasance.
    And talked about early treatment.
    Dr.Jane Ruby talked about the many
    adverse effects of the toxic mRNa spike protein injections and hidden fatal ingredients and that cannot be
    detoxify.
    Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi explained how the lymphocytes attack because of the spike protein from injected toxic mRNa spike protein injections and how some viral sickness will explodes like herpes,hepatitis because of spike protein.also name as (autoimmune attack,super autoimmune response, hypertension reactions, antibodies eating your own healthy cells damaging all cells.)
    Dr.Luc Montagnier stated “if you already got the 3rd dose go and test for AIDS ”
    Dr. Robert Malone said “the mRNa vaxsins causing a form of AIDS”
    Dr. Kary Mullis said, the inventor of pcr test ” You can get anything using pcr test and it does not tell you you are sick,it doesn’t identify sickness “.
    Dr. Jose Micabalo Oclarit explained the pcr test and ” alleged ” covid virus that it never been identified and isolated because there is no specific primer to identify that virus.
    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko talked about the jabs causes AIDS after receiving the vaxsins especially fully VAX and boosters receivers.And talked about early treatment.
    Dr.Roberto Young speak about the Biggest Fraud to Humanity when every year the narrative of new virus come out but never been isolated only just a claims to fool the People on the Planet.And virus only comes from Laboratories.
    As explained by many truthful Doctors and experts pcr test is a 90% above false positives generator
    using 37cycle. of magnifications the higher the number of cycles the highest the error up to 100% error as Dr..Reiner Fuellmich said there is no Pandemic only there is pcr Test Plandemic.

    To proved it the errors of Pcr Test The late President of Tanzania doubtful of the history of Covid19, He secretly used to swab test papaya fruits and goats then name it to Human names then submitted it to the Health Officials after which the results many are positives then the President of Tanzania Exposed and Disclosed his findings to the Media after a few days the President died,what a convenience???

    ALL OF THEM DOCTORS PROBE MANY THINGS WITH DATA AND MANY OF THEM PROBE WITH THEIR PATIENTS.
    THESE ARE ALL MY TRUTHFUL DOCTORS AND I BELIEVED THEM
    NOT POLITICIANS DOCTORS,NOT synchronized Corporate Mainstream Media can be paid with ads by millions,Not POLITICIANS KNOWS NOTHING BUT THE AGENDA.

    Thinking Mind:
    Freedom of Expression:
    Human Individual Basic Rights:
    Human Rights:
    Human have the right to life:
    FACTS TRUTH AND CHECKED!!!!
    Planned Demik: is a call of DEATHS.

    Ang face mask is only a false assumption that your saliva is automatically a covid, you fuck your wife at home,you hug and kisses your kids at home, you talked with your parents at home,your kids playing everyday with your neighborhoods at home no Covid,but when go outside your home you wear face mask going to Malls,offices and Stores automatically Covid are in your SALIVAS???That all are false assumptions!! Realities speak louder at your big EYES BIG NOSE AND BRAIN DAMAGED!!?? Use simple logic and practicality, practical and reality are the EVIDENCE do not falsify the realities with a repeated ASSUMPTIONS AND EXPERIMENTAL!!!
    A true Science yes it always start with theory and assumptions then trial and testings then Analysis or Risk Assessment and Analysis thru data collected from truthful results from the testing results and for over 3yreas now you still relying on false assumptions and experimental????
    STUPID, TERRORISTS ACT I MAY CONCLUDES!!!
    THIS TERROR NOT SAVING LIFE THIS FRAUDULENT ACTS KILLS MANY.

  4. Thinking Mind:
    Freedom of Expression:
    Human Individual Basic Rights:
    Human Rights:
    Human have the right to life:
    FACTS TRUTH AND CHECKED!!!!
    Depopulation: All Started in false assumptions of wearing facemask
    and false assumptions of face-to-fomite transmission and false assumptions that our SALIVA are automatically a COVID virus.
    Facemasking for a Covid is only a Political will from false assumptions not base on scientific.
    Monkeypox or monkey business pox plus Brainwash Covid all came from Laboratories of enhancing bioweapons.
    Planned Demik is a call of Deaths, aborigines Laboratories and Bioweapons.Only done by a TERRORISTS.
    (Because you love false assumption facemasks and you love BrainwashCovid now may be you love new monkeypox they made you now A New pills name PAXLOVID ).
    pcr test is a 90% above
    false positives generator in conclusion using 37cycles of magnification the higher the number of cycles the highest error
    of positives up to 100%.It cannot identify or isolate the virus.It doesn’t tell you you are sick.
    As Dr.Reiner Fullmich said there is no Pandemic only pcr test Plandemic.
    As late Sen.Meriam Santiago Defensor said:
    ” What is Rule of Law??Ruler??
    “Rule of Law must apply to everyone not base on assumptions and experimental.”

    Assumptions and Experimental if applied to LIFE it mean Horrible Deaths.

    “There is an expectation in bioethics that when an experiment is leading to harm you stop the experiment.” “Uninformed Consent” co-star Dr. Charles Hoffe, MD. Canadians did great on this film! # getvaccinated? # vaccineswork? # VaccinesSaveLives?

    Join 👉 @PeterMcCullough

    Thinking Mind:

    Well of course any experiment and any assumptions if it going to harm
    you and any body, “STOP IT IMMEDIATELY”. It will always kill if not STOP.

    In any single of a lawsuit you ask for a tight evidence, how should you serve true JUSTICE if your Law or Executive Order base on assumptions and experimental???
    Assumptions and Experimental if applied to LIFE IT MEANS HORRIBLE DEATHS.
    Name of Doctors trying to bring you the truth at GREAT cost to themselves and their Life.
    from Philippine:
    Dr. Jose Micabalo Oclarit(virologist)
    Dr. Romeo F. Quijano (Pharmacology and toxicology)
    Doctors of (DX CX concern doctors of the Philippine)

    International Doctors:
    Dr.Peter McCullough (Most Published on CV)
    Dr. Robert Malone (mRNa inventor)
    Dr. Michael Yeadon (Toxicology former Pfizer VP)
    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko (Nobel PP Nominee and Presidents Doctor)
    Dr.Kary Mullis(pcr test inventor and Nobel PP Winner)
    Dr. Sucharit bhakdi (virologist)
    Dr. Robert Morse N.D.
    Dr.Paul Marik #2 Intensive Cars Unit in the World(says that Remdicivir is 53% fatal and toxic, against ivermectin is very effective for early treatment and only cost $2cents )
    He Pronounced Crime Against Humanity because W.H.O and the Governments around the WORLD
    did not allowed the truthful Doctors to treat the PEOPLE.
    Dr. and Prof. Luc Montagnier (Nobel
    Prize winning Virologist)
    Dr. Rima Laibow
    Dr. Naomi Wolf
    Dr.David Martin
    Dr.Roger Hodkinson
    Dr. Geert Vanden Boosche
    Dr. Jane Ruby
    Dr. Vernon Coleman
    Dr. Peter Doshi
    Dr.Michael Lake
    Dr. Reiner Fuelmich
    Dr. Loraine Day
    Dr. Roberto Young
    Plus more 17,000 Doctors Globally.

    Dr. Peter McCullough explained about myocarditis one the side effect of toxic mRNa spike protein causes myocarditis drastically.
    And talk about malfeasance.
    And talked about early treatment.
    Dr.Jane Ruby talked about the many
    adverse effects of the toxic mRNa spike protein injections and hidden fatal ingredients and that cannot be
    detoxify.
    Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi explained how the lymphocytes attack because of the spike protein from injected toxic mRNa spike protein injections and how some viral sickness will explodes like herpes,hepatitis because of spike protein.also name as (autoimmune attack,super autoimmune response, hypertension reactions, antibodies eating your own healthy cells damaging all cells.)
    Dr.Luc Montagnier stated “if you already got the 3rd dose go and test for AIDS ”
    Dr. Robert Malone said “the mRNa vaxsins causing a form of AIDS”
    Dr. Kary Mullis said, the inventor of pcr test ” You can get anything using pcr test and it does not tell you you are sick,it doesn’t identify sickness “.
    Dr. Jose Micabalo Oclarit explained the pcr test and ” alleged ” covid virus that it never been identified and isolated because there is no specific primer to identify that virus.
    Dr. Vladimir Zelenko talked about the jabs causes AIDS after receiving the vaxsins especially fully VAX and boosters receivers.And talked about early treatment.
    Dr.Roberto Young speak about the Biggest Fraud to Humanity when every year the narrative of new virus come out but never been isolated only just a claims to fool the People on the Planet.And virus only comes from Laboratories.
    As explained by many truthful Doctors and experts pcr test is a 90% above false positives generator
    using 37cycle. of magnifications the higher the number of cycles the highest the error up to 100% error as Dr..Reiner Fuellmich said there is no Pandemic only there is pcr Test Plandemic.

    To proved it the errors of Pcr Test The late President of Tanzania doubtful of the history of Covid19, He secretly used to swab test papaya fruits and goats then name it to Human names then submitted it to the Health Officials after which the results many are positives then the President of Tanzania Exposed and Disclosed his findings to the Media after a few days the President died,what a convenience???

    ALL OF THEM DOCTORS PROBE MANY THINGS WITH DATA AND MANY OF THEM PROBE WITH THEIR PATIENTS.
    THESE ARE ALL MY TRUTHFUL DOCTORS AND I BELIEVED THEM
    NOT POLITICIANS DOCTORS,NOT synchronized Corporate Mainstream Media can be paid with ads by millions,Not POLITICIANS KNOWS NOTHING BUT THE AGENDA.

    Thinking Mind:
    Freedom of Expression:
    Human Individual Basic Rights:
    Human Rights:
    Human have the right to life:
    FACTS TRUTH AND CHECKED!!!!
    Planned Demik: is a call of DEATHS.

    Ang face mask is only a false assumption that your saliva is automatically a covid, you fuck your wife at home,you hug and kisses your kids at home, you talked with your parents at home,your kids playing everyday with your neighborhoods at home no Covid,but when go outside your home you wear face mask going to Malls,offices and Stores automatically Covid are in your SALIVAS???That all are false assumptions!! Realities speak louder at your big EYES BIG NOSE AND BRAIN DAMAGED!!?? Use simple logic and practicality, practical and reality are the EVIDENCE do not falsify the realities with a repeated ASSUMPTIONS AND EXPERIMENTAL!!!
    A true Science yes it always start with theory and assumptions then trial and testings then Analysis or Risk Assessment and Analysis thru data collected from truthful results from the testing results and for over 3yreas now you still relying on false assumptions and experimental????
    STUPID, TERRORISTS ACT I MAY CONCLUDES!!!
    THIS TERROR NOT SAVING LIFE THIS FRAUDULENT ACTS KILLS MANY.